在COVID-19大流行之后,预测未来的注册护士劳动力
David I Auerbach1, Peter I Buerhaus2, Karen Donelan3
1Brandeis University, Waltham, Massachusetts.
JAMA health forum
|February 16, 2024
概括
美国注册护士 (RN) 劳动力在2021年经历了暂时的下降,但此后已经恢复. 预测显示,到2035年,RN的劳动力将大幅增长,接近疫情前的估计.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健劳动力动力学
- 护理经济学 护理经济学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 注册护士 (RN) 工作人员对于医疗保健提供系统至关重要.
- 由于COVID-19大流行,美国RN劳动力在2021年显著减少.
- 这种下降对RN劳动力增长的长期影响仍然不确定.
研究的目的:
- 分析到2023年注册护士 (RN) 就业的最新趋势.
- 预测到2035年的RN劳动力的增长轨迹.
- 评估大流行后护理劳动力的复苏和未来前景.
主要方法:
- 使用当前人口调查数据,对1982年至2023年的RN就业趋势进行描述性分析.
- 追溯队列分析检查RN就业的出生年和年龄.
- 预测到2035年的RN劳动力规模和年龄分布.
主要成果:
- 在2021年下降后,RN就业反弹,2022-2023年数字比2019年水平高6%.
- 预计到2035年,RN员工人数将增加约120万个全职等价单位 (FTEs).
- 35-49岁的年龄组将推动增长,到2035年,他们将占RN劳动力的47%.
结论:
- 2021年RN就业人数的下降似乎是与流行病有关的临时事件.
- 目前的预测表明,RN员工人数将大幅增长,与大流行前的预测保持一致.
- 预计护理劳动力将大幅扩大,确保持续的医疗保健能力.
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