向全面的生命周期致癌影响评估:基于癌症负担的统计回归方法
Danyu Li1, Jingcai Chang2, Jinglan Hong3
1Department of Electronic and Information Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, 99907, Hong Kong.
The Science of the total environment
|February 16, 2024
概括
一个新的动态生命周期致癌影响评估 (LCCA) 模型准确地预测了癌症负担. 这种方法,与静态LCCA不同,考虑了环境和社会经济因素,改进了致癌物影响评估.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 毒理学 毒理学 毒理学
背景情况:
- 静态生命周期致癌影响评估 (LCCA) 方法在预测癌症发病率,损害和经济负担方面存在局限性.
- 传统的LCCA通常依赖于动物毒性数据,可能低估了现实世界的影响.
- 环境,流行病学和社会经济因素之间的复杂相互作用有助于非线性癌症风险.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个全面的,动态的LCCA途径来评估癌症影响.
- 评估与中国煤电行业相关的气管,支气管和肺癌 (TBL) 的健康和经济负担.
- 为了证明动态LCCA模型的可行性,用于实际的致癌物影响评估和缓解.
主要方法:
- 利用选的统计回归模型来预测中国煤电行业LCCA对TBL癌症的影响.
- 雇员全球疾病负担估计量化TBL发病率对健康造成的损害.
- 应用了综合医疗成本和人力资本方法来评估TBL癌症的经济负担.
主要成果:
- 动态LCCA,考虑到时空气象,流行病学和社会经济因素,揭示了非线性风险.
- 中国煤电行业的TBL癌症发病率贡献从25.2% (2004年) 降至11.5% (2020年) 超低排放变化后.
- 动态LCCA模型使用集成数据有效评估和减轻致癌物影响.
结论:
- 动态LCCA模型通过结合复杂的影响因素,提供比静态方法更准确的评估.
- 环境和能源政策,如超低排放标准,大大降低了煤电行业的癌症负担.
- 开发的动态LCCA框架适合在致癌物影响评估和缓解策略中的实际应用.
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