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在一个温暖的气候中显著增加了灰和闪电的发生,模拟通过预测灰参数化的预测
1Department of Earth Science, Okayama University, Okayama, Japan. tmichibata@okayama-u.ac.jp.
Scientific reports
|February 16, 2024
概括
全球气候模型 (GCMs) 现在通过包括 graupel 更好地预测闪电速率. 这项研究表明,由于气候变化,雷电活动增加,并突出强调了格鲁佩尔.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候建模气候模型
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 全球气候模型 (GCM) 缺乏对闪电速率对气候变化反应的共识.
- 这种不确定性在很大程度上归因于现有模型中排除了合过程.
- 准确的气候预测需要改进对微物理过程的表现.
研究的目的:
- 在MIROC6 GCM中整合一个两时的预后形方案.
- 研究过去和未来气候变化对闪电频率的影响.
- 评估石在不同气候条件下调节闪电活动中的作用.
主要方法:
- 在MIROC6 GCM中整合了一种新的两瞬间预后格鲁佩尔方案.
- 为工业化前,当前和未来的变暖场景执行模拟.
- 模型性能与卫星检索和重新分析数据对 graupel,可用的对流潜在能量和闪电速率的验证.
主要成果:
- 改进的微物理方案准确地复制了关键变量的全球分布.
- 从工业化前时期到现在,全球平均闪电速率增加了7.1%,这与增加的雷击率有关.
- 未来的气候变暖预计将使雷速增加18.4%,这是由于破坏稳定和增强的葡萄树发生.
结论:
- 加入石墨烯显著提高了GCM模拟闪电活动的能力.
- 气候变化明显增加了闪电频率,未来的预测显示会大幅增加.
- 准确的气候预测,特别是在像北极这样的地区,需要明确考虑葡萄的季节性及其对闪电的影响.
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