探索碳信用计划在巴西对冲能源价格的潜力
Rafael Baptista Palazzi1, Derick David Quintino2, Paulo Jorge Silveira Ferreira3,4,5
1Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), São Paulo School of Business Administration, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|February 17, 2024
概括
巴西的脱碳信贷 (CBIOS) 计划旨在促进生物燃料. 然而,目前的CBIO合同并不是对能源价格波动的有效对冲,尽管未来潜力存在.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 金融市场 金融市场
- 可持续能源政策 可持续能源政策
背景情况:
- 全球向低碳经济的转变对于减少对化石燃料的依赖和污染至关重要,符合联合国可持续发展目标13 (气候行动).
- 巴西的脱碳信贷 (CBIOS) 计划通过碳信贷鼓励生物燃料生产和环境可持续性.
研究的目的:
- 评估CBIO合同作为面临能源价格波动和脱碳倡议的投资者金融对冲工具的有效性.
- 分析CBIO与主要能源商品:糖,石油和乙醇的期货和现货价格之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 使用条件动态相关性 (DCC-GARCH) 模型来评估波动性和相关性.
- 应用了最佳对冲比率 (HR) 技术来量化对冲的有效性.
主要成果:
- 目前的CBIO合同不提供对现货和未来能源价格的有效对冲.
- 随着时间的推移,在芝加哥交易的乙醇和CBIO之间观察到越来越多的相关性.
结论:
- 目前CBIO合同作为对冲的无效性凸显了进一步发展碳定价机制的必要性.
- 乙醇和CBIO之间的联系越来越强,这表明未来对冲公用事业的潜力,支持可持续能源政策和金融市场的风险减轻.
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