戏剧性风险的感知:有偏见的媒体,但没有偏见的思想
1Technical University of Munich, School of Management, Arcisstr. 21, 80333 München, Germany; Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Center for Adaptive Rationality, Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany.
Cognition
|February 18, 2024
概括
这项研究回顾了一项关于风险感知的经典研究,发现媒体报道夸大了戏剧性风险. 然而,人们对死亡风险的判断并不总是反映出这种媒体偏见,而是暗示依赖个人网络.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 风险感知研究 风险感知研究
- 媒体研究 媒体研究
背景情况:
- 1978年的一项基础性研究表明,人们高估了戏剧性风险 (例如杀人),低估了常见风险 (例如心脏病).
- 这种偏见与媒体过度报道戏剧性事件有关,这是社会科学中广泛接受的结论.
- 这些发现的可靠性和可复制性受到质疑,因为原始研究中缺乏严格的统计评估.
研究的目的:
- 系统地评估关于风险感知和媒体报道的原始发现的可复制性.
- 统计分析原始和复制数据集,涉及戏剧性与非戏剧性风险判断和媒体描绘.
- 调查影响人们风险频率判断的来源,特别是媒体与个人社交网络.
主要方法:
- 进行了系统的文献搜索,以识别Lichtenstein等人的复制品. (1978) 研究.研究.
- 在原始数据集和识别的复制数据上进行贝叶斯统计分析.
- 分析了媒体报道,并将其与人们在数据集中的风险频率判断进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 所有分析的数据集都显示了强有力的证据,表明媒体对戏剧性风险的报道过多,对非戏剧性风险的报道不足.
- 显著高估戏剧性风险和低估人们判断中的非戏剧性风险仅在原始数据集中发现,而不是在复制中.
- 所有研究的综合数据表明,人们的风险频率判断中没有可靠的差异性扭曲,这表明没有媒体驱动的偏见.
结论:
- 人们普遍认为,公众风险感知扭曲反映了媒体报道的扭曲,但其经验基础有限.
- 人们的风险频率判断可能更多地依赖于个人社交网络的样本,而不是媒体描绘.
- 风险判断过程涉及到对心理可用的信息来源敏感的元认知机制,例如社交网络.
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