在州际高速公路上调查行人车辆撞车事故:应用随机参数二元逻辑模型,具有异质的平均值
Ahmed Hossain1, Xiaoduan Sun1, Subasish Das2
1Department of Civil Engineering, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, LA 70503, USA.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|February 18, 2024
概括
州际高速公路上的行人撞车事故,通常涉及残疾人或那些退出残疾人车辆的人,构成独特的风险. 损坏和周末事件显著增加了这些无意行人致命或严重受伤的可能性.
科学领域:
- 交通安全 交通安全 交通安全
- 运输工程 运输工程
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 州际高速公路是受控通行路线,行人存在是非法的.
- 在州际公路上发生的行人车辆碰撞引发了明显的安全问题,通常涉及"无意行人".
- 了解这些特定行人碰撞的高风险场景对于开发有针对性的安全干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查路易斯安那州州际高速公路上从2014年至2018年发生的行人受伤事故.
- 确定导致州际车祸中行人死亡/严重 (FS) 伤害的因素.
- 用模型分析崩数据,以解释未观察到的异质性.
主要方法:
- 分析了531起行人伤害事故的KABC (致命,严重,中度,投诉).
- 步行者受伤严重程度的分类:致命/严重 (FS) 和中度/投诉 (IN).
- 运用随机参数二进制逻辑与异质平均值 (RPBL-HM) 模型.
主要成果:
- 增加FS受伤可能性的因素包括行人损伤,行人行为,周末发生,驾驶员年龄 (35-44岁) 和春季季节.
- "行人损伤"和"周末"之间的显著相互作用表明,周末受损行人的FS撞车风险更高.
- RPBL-HM模型有效地解决了未观察到的导致事故的因素异质性.
结论:
- 对于严重的州际车祸结果,行人损伤和周末时间是关键因素.
- 州际行人安全战略应解决"无意行人"面临的特定风险.
- 调查结果为缓解高速公路上的意外行人事故提供了洞察力.
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