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部分受约束的组变量选择以调整美国大学橄球队的补充单位表现
1New College of Florida, Sarasota, FL, USA.
Journal of applied statistics
|February 19, 2024
概括
这项研究引入了"互补足球"指标,以改善美国大学足球 (CFB) 排名. 通过分析进攻和防守单位的互动,新的数据驱动评估提高了团队绩效评估.
科学领域:
- 运动分析 运动分析
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 美国大学足球 美国大学足球
背景情况:
- 准确的美国大学橄球 (CFB) 球队排名对于冠军和季后赛的影响至关重要.
- 现有的指标通常独立评估进攻和防守单位,忽视了它们的协同潜力.
- "互补足球"的概念,单位相互影响 (例如,防守创造得分机会),仍然在很大程度上未得到量化.
研究的目的:
- 通过数据驱动的方法来确定足球互补的关键特征.
- 根据补充单位的影响来调整进攻和防守绩效指标.
- 提高CFB团队绩效评估的准确性.
主要方法:
- 利用了2009-2019年美国大学橄球赛季的数据.
- 纳入自然分线与统计分析的集团惩罚方法.
- 使用部分受约束的优化来调整时间表的强度和主场优势.
主要成果:
- 确定了足球互补的始终具有影响力的特征.
- 开发了一种调整球队进攻和防守表现得分的方法.
- 在独立的单元分析之外,提供了对团队力量的更全面的评估.
结论:
- 互补足球是美国大学足球表现的重要,可量化的因素.
- 拟议的方法提供了一种更准确,更细致的方法来对CFB队伍进行排名.
- 未来的评估应纳入这些互补的动态,以提高预测能力和排名.
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