将通货膨胀率纳入建筑项目的成本:预测模型的预测模型
Muhammad Ali Musarat1,2, Wesam Salah Alaloul1, M S Liew1
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Bandar Seri Iskandar, 32610, Perak, Malaysia.
Heliyon
|February 20, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了一种建筑费率预测模型,以预测受通货膨胀影响的项目成本. 该模型准确地预测了建设速度,有助于预算修订和数量测量.
科学领域:
- 建设管理建设管理.
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 时间序列分析时间序列分析
背景情况:
- 通货膨胀对建筑项目成本产生重大影响,导致预算超支并需要修订.
- 准确预测建设速度对于有效的项目预算和财务规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个数学模型来预测建筑速度,并纳入通货膨胀的动态影响.
- 预测未来几年的建设费率和价格,协助调整数量法案.
主要方法:
- 使用MATLAB开发了一个时间序列分析数学模型.
- 使用2013-2019年的数据,从2020-2025年预测了建筑率,建筑价格,劳动工资和机械价格.
- 该模型的有效性是使用Akaike信息标准进行评估的.
主要成果:
- 与自行回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 模型相比,开发的预测模型显示出更高的性能.
- 该模型准确地预测了建筑速度,并考虑到通货膨胀的影响.
结论:
- 开发的建设率预测模型对于易受通胀影响的项目来说是一个有价值的工具.
- 这种模型可以提高建筑行业的预算准确性和财务可预测性.
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