二氧化碳排放和环境风险:长期和短期
Sabri Boubaker1,2,3, Zhenya Liu4,5, Yuhao Mu4
1EM Normandie Business School, Métis Lab, Paris, France.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|February 20, 2024
概括
全球变暖需要仔细规划二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放. 尽管有努力,但二氧化碳排放量自1950年以来没有出现结构性变化,需要每年减少3.22%才能实现"巴黎协定"的目标.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 全球变暖研究全球变暖研究
背景情况:
- 全球变暖是一个重大的环境挑战.
- 精心规划二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放对于减缓至关重要.
- 自1950年以来,现有的国家努力并没有结构性地改变二氧化碳排放趋势.
研究的目的:
- 分析二氧化碳排放带来的长期和短期环境挑战.
- 评估全球努力和COVID-19等事件对排放轨迹的影响.
- 确定实现"巴黎协定"气候目标所需的减排率.
主要方法:
- 变化点检测分析应用于自1950年以来的 CO2 排放历史数据.
- 在国际气候协议的背景下评估排放趋势.
- 对短期排放波动的分析,包括COVID-19流行病的影响.
主要成果:
- 自1950年以来,全球二氧化碳排放没有发现任何结构变化.
- 根据"巴黎协定"目标的碳预算,预计在没有重大干预的情况下,到2046年将被耗尽.
- 为了实现这一目标,全球二氧化碳排放量需要每年持续减少3.22%.
- 由于COVID-19大流行,二氧化碳排放量仅暂时下降,各行各业迅速复苏.
结论:
- 为了减少二氧化碳排放,需要采取紧急和实质性的全球努力.
- 目前的减排战略不足以实现长期的气候目标.
- 了解COVID-19后特定部门的排放恢复模式是有针对性的缓解的关键.
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