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在典型的生态脆弱地区对生态安全的综合评估和预测
Ling Lv1, Wei Guo2, Xuesheng Zhao1
1College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing, 100083, China.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|February 20, 2024
概括
脆弱地区的生态安全需要量身定制的土地利用. 一个新的PLUS-ESI-Circuit理论框架显示,虽然建筑区在增长,但生态恢复可以提高宁夏族自治区的生态安全.
科学领域:
- 生态安全评估 生态安全评估
- 土地使用建模.
- 区域规划 地区规划
背景情况:
- 生态脆弱地区需要定制的土地利用结构和生态安全模式来恢复.
- 现有的生态安全模型往往是均的,需要集成的多模型框架.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一个结合的"PLUS-ESI-电路理论"框架,用于宁夏族自治区 (NHAR) 的多场景生态安全评估.
- 构建一个生态安全指数 (ESI),整合生态服务功能,健康和风险.
- 提出基于场景分析的生态安全区分优化策略.
主要方法:
- 用PLUS模型对四个未来发展场景进行土地利用模拟.
- 构建一个新的生态安全指数 (ESI),综合生态服务功能,健康和风险.
- 应用电路理论来构建多场景的生态安全模式,并提出分区策略.
主要成果:
- 草原和农田占NHAR土地的80%左右,建筑区在2000-2030年间持续增长.
- 高生态安全区集中在山区,低安全区则集中在沙波图和川等地区.
- 在经济发展情景下,景观碎片化增加,但在生态保护和平衡发展情景下得到缓解.
- 生态恢复和保护工作对于加强该地区的生态安全至关重要.
结论:
- 结合的PLUS-ESI-电路理论框架有效地评估了脆弱地区的多场景生态安全.
- 土地利用变化对生态安全模式产生重大影响,突出了战略规划的必要性.
- 有针对性的生态恢复和保护对于改善NHAR的生态安全至关重要.
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