通过使用GARCH和Holt-Winters模型预测植被的波动性和季节性
Vibhanshu Kumar1, Birendra Bharti2, Harendra Prasad Singh1
1Department of Civil Engineering, Central University of Jharkhand, Ranchi, India.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|February 21, 2024
概括
这项研究整合了通用自回归条件异种分裂性 (GARCH) 和霍尔特-温特斯 (H-W) 模型,以使用规范差异植被指数 (NDVI) 数据分析植被季节性和波动性. 研究结果显示,这些模型有效地预测了印度哈德州的植被模式.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
背景情况:
- 生态系统植被的季节性和波动性与气候敏感性有关,影响环境和社会经济福祉.
- 监测和预测植被生长模式对于生态系统管理至关重要,并依赖于远程传感数据,如NDVI.
- 了解这些动态对于农业规划和气候变化适应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 模拟和分析印度哈邦三个农业气候区的植被生长季节性和波动性.
- 为了评估整合通用自回归条件异种素性 (GARCH) 和霍尔特-温特斯 (H-W) 模型用于植被指数时间序列分析的有效性.
- 通过使用规范差异植被指数 (NDVI) 数据来预测植被动态,确定表现最好的模型.
主要方法:
- 使用的MODIS地球植被指数NDVI数据 (MOD13Q1) 从2001年到2021年为NDVI时间序列.
- 应用基于GARCH的标准GARCH (SGARCH) [1,1]和指数GARCH (EGARCH) [1,1]模型来评估植被生长的波动性.
- 使用霍尔特-温特斯 (H-W) 添加模型来模拟植被季节性.
主要成果:
- 根据SGARCH [1,1]和EGARCH [1,1]模型,西部农业气候区的表现优越,这是最大概率和最小信息标准所表明的.
- 添加式H-W模型在东部农业气候区的季节性方面产生了最佳结果,其误差指标 (MAE,MAPE,RMSE) 较低,R2和NSE值较高.
- 该研究成功地模拟了不同农业气候区的NDVI时间序列波动性和季节性.
结论:
- 综合的H-W和GARCH模型为预测植被季节性和使用NDVI监测生长模式提供了强大的框架.
- 研究结果强调了先进的时间序列建模对于理解农业地区气候植物相互作用的有用性.
- 这种方法可以支持可持续的土地管理和气候适应战略的知情决策.
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