估计选择性报告的范围:对经济学的应用
Stephan B Bruns1,2,3, Teshome K Deressa1, T D Stanley4
1Centre for Environmental Sciences, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium.
Research synthesis methods
|February 21, 2024
概括
对p值的选择性报告普遍存在,57.7%-71.9%的重要发现可能被错误报告. 这种偏差,特别是对于非常小的p值,在具有实验设计和足够的统计能力的领域较少见.
科学领域:
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
- 研究方法研究方法研究方法学
- 进行元分析分析.
背景情况:
- 发表偏见,特别是对统计学显著结果的选择性报告,是科学文献中的一个问题.
- 了解p值的真实分布对于准确的科学解释至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在没有偏差的情况下,以实证方式估计p值的反事实分布.
- 量化公布的元分析中对p值的选择性报告的程度.
- 识别可能减轻选择性报告的因素.
主要方法:
- 分析了来自192个元分析的70,399个已发表的p值.
- 对反事实p值分布的实证估计.
- 观察到的p值与反事实分布的比较.
主要成果:
- 估计有57.7%至71.9%的统计学上显著的p值可能被选择性地报告.
- 观察到非常小的p值 (p < 0.001) 的意想不到的丰度.
- 选择性报告在采用实验设计,分析微观经济学,并进行足够强大的研究的领域中不那么明显.
结论:
- 发表的大量显著的p值很可能是选择性报告偏差的结果.
- 发表的p值的分布是倾斜的,具有高度显著的结果的过度代表.
- 研究设计和统计能力可能会影响出版偏差的程度.
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