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气候变量对树林的空间分布比在其历史范围内的土地使用变化更有效
Hengameh Mirhashemi1, Kourosh Ahmadi2, Mehdi Heydari3
1Department of Forest Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|February 21, 2024
概括
气候和土地使用变化严重威胁Quercus brantii (QB) 森林. 预测显示,到2070年,由于这些综合影响,息地损失可能达到96.29%.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
背景情况:
- 树 (Quercus brantii) 森林在生态上具有重要意义,但易受环境变化的影响.
- 了解气候变化和土地利用变化 (LUC) 的影响对于QB保护至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 模拟气候和LUC对QB森林分布的影响.
- 确定影响QB息地适宜性的关键气候和土地利用预测因素.
- 在不同的气候场景下预测未来的息地变化.
主要方法:
- 在RCP 2.6和RCP 8.5场景下使用一般循环模型 (GCM) 进行物种分布建模.
- 使用了像渐变增强机 (GBM),MaxEnt和随机森林 (RF) 这样的算法.
- 评估了2050年和2070年的息地适应性,考虑了气候和LUC变量.
主要成果:
- 气候变量,特别是平均日间范围 (bio2),降水季节性 (bio15) 和最干旱季度的平均温度 (bio9),是QB分布的主要驱动因素.
- 与气候因素相比,土地利用变量对树物种分布的影响较小.
- 目前,QB的高适宜性息地面积为97,608.81平方公里,在悲观的情景下,由于LUC和气候变化的结合,到2070年预计将损失96.29%.
结论:
- 气候变化和LUC对Quercus brantii息地构成严重威胁,迫切需要采取保护战略.
- 准确的建模识别了影响息地变迁的关键因素,有助于有针对性的保护和恢复工作.
- 保护这一关键物种及其相关生物多样性的有效规划依赖于这种预测洞察力.
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