春季产量动态对气候变化的反应,跨越高度梯度和各种水文地质条件
Anna Lamacova1, Ondrej Ledvinka2, Leona Bohdalkova3
1Hydrology Division, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Na Sabatce 2050/17, 143 06 Prague 4, Czechia; Department of Environmental Geochemistry and Biogeochemistry, Czech Geological Survey, Klarov 3, 118 21 Prague 1, Czechia.
The Science of the total environment
|February 21, 2024
概括
捷克的春季产量正在下降,特别是在低地,由于气温上升和最近的干旱. 这一趋势影响了当地供水,凸显了地下水对气候变化的脆弱性.
科学领域:
- 水地质学和气候学
- 环境科学和水资源管理
背景情况:
- 长期监测春季产量对于了解地下水动态和对气候变化的储存反应至关重要.
- 泉源为地下水系统的健康提供了重要的见解,作为环境变化的敏感指标.
研究的目的:
- 分析从1971年到2020年捷克春季收益率的长期趋势.
- 评估环境因素对春季排放的影响,包括气候变化,海拔和地质传导性.
- 调查春季季节性变化,最大产量以及最近干旱事件的影响.
主要方法:
- 来自捷克18个水文地质地区的136个泉源的年度春季产量数据分析 (1971-2020).
- 应用无趋势的白化前曼-肯达尔试验和线性混合效应模型来识别趋势和评估影响因素.
- 春季产量与气候变量 (降水,温度) 之间的相关性分析,考虑区域传染性和高度.
主要成果:
- 71%的弹没有显著的长期收益率趋势,而28%的弹呈现下降趋势,1.5%的弹呈现上升趋势.
- 低地泉源 (海拔<300米) 在海拔上空. 有着最高比例的下降趋势 (41%),与高原 (>600米海拔) 相反. 显示了一些增长 (7%).
- 气温上升与春季产量有负相关性 (p < 0.01),而降水则显示出正相关性 (p < 0.01). 低传导率区域 (晶体,飞) 的弹特别容易受到伤害.
- 从4月到3月观察到春季高峰流量季节性的转变,而4月和5月的产量明显下降.
- 2015-2020年的干旱大大加快了各种水文地质地区春季产量下降的趋势.
结论:
- 捷克的春季产量受到气候变化的重大影响,气温上升和区域地质发挥着关键作用.
- 高度和地质传导性是决定春季对气候变化的脆弱性的关键因素,影响当地水资源.
- 观察到的春季产量趋势和季节性变化,因干旱而加剧,表明需要适应性水资源管理策略.
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