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使用基于人口的预测模型,跨公平因素建模慢性疾病风险:慢性疾病人口风险工具 (CDPoRT)

Kitty Chen¹, Kathy Kornas¹, Laura C Rosella^2,3,4,5

¹Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

Journal of epidemiology and community health

|February 21, 2024

概括

在安大略省预测未来的慢性疾病显示,弱势群体的高风险. 有针对性的预防策略可以显著减少新病例,特别是在低收入和粮食不安全的人群中.

科学领域:

公共卫生公共卫生
流行病学流行病学
健康公平卫生公平

背景情况:

在人口层面预测慢性疾病对于了解未来的健康负担和指导预防工作至关重要.
这项研究主要集中在加拿大安大略省,旨在预测慢性病发病率,并为弱势群体提供模范干预措施.

研究的目的:

通过人口级风险预测工具,估计安大略省未来的慢性疾病负担.
模拟有针对性的预防干预措施对减少在配当群体中慢性病发病率的影响.

主要方法:

使用经过验证的慢性疾病人口风险工具 (CDPoRT) 基于2017/2018年加拿大社区健康调查数据.
预测10年慢性病发病率 (到2027/2028) 对于一般成年人群和特定的配当群体.
模拟预防场景,涉及2%和5%的风险降低,针对高风险人群.

主要成果:

基线慢性疾病风险在未完成中学教育 (37.5%),严重粮食不安全 (19.5%),低收入 (21.2%),高工作压力 (15.0%) 的人群中最高.
据CDPoRT预测,到2027/2028年,安大略省将有142万个新的慢性疾病病例.
5%的风险降低可以防止大量病例发生:1500例 (教育),14900例 (收入),2800例 (粮食不安全) 和57100例 (工作场所压力).

结论:

通过有针对性的预防策略,可以实现慢性疾病病例的显著减少.
预防举措必须解决健康的上游社会决定因素,这些因素对应得到公平的群体产生不成比例的影响.

关键词:

长期的日期慢性日期支持决策的技术.流行病学流行病学健康影响评估的健康影响评估医疗保健方面的差异

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