通过使用模糊贝叶斯网络和后果建模,对CNG站的定量风险估计
Behzad Abbasi Kharajou1, Hassan Ahmadi2, Masoud Rafiei3
1Department of Urban Planning, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran.
Scientific reports
|February 21, 2024
概括
压缩天然气 (CNG) 站的风险评估对城市安全至关重要. 结合模糊贝叶斯网络和弓带图,发现不兼容的土地用途显著增加了社会风险,需要仔细的城市规划.
科学领域:
- 风险评估和安全工程.
- 城市规划和灾害管理.
- 环境科学和地质科学.
背景情况:
- 压缩天然气 (CNG) 站在城市环境中存在爆炸和火灾风险.
- 不充分的风险评估可能导致严重事故和伤亡.
- 不兼容的土地使用的邻近性加剧了潜在的危险.
研究的目的:
- 使用集成模型估计多用途CNG/LPG站的风险.
- 在风险评估中评估模糊贝叶斯网络和弓形图的有效性.
- 确定土地利用对事故场景和社会风险的影响.
主要方法:
- 采用了迷糊贝叶斯网络,弓带图和结果建模的组合.
- 开发了一个安全团队来识别25个Bow-tie图的基本和中间事件.
- 由于数据的限制,应用了模糊理论来计算事件概率,并使用了GeNLe软件来构建贝叶斯网络.
- 使用PHAST/SAFETI (V8.22) 和GIS进行爆炸效应空间分析进行风险估计.
主要成果:
- 贝叶斯网络模型表明社会风险较高,相比领带图.
- 仅仅用蝶结图来进行综合性风险评估是不够的.
- 不相容的土地用途,特别是住宅和行政用途,显著放大了事故场景的影响.
结论:
- 综合风险评估模型对于了解CNG站的复杂危险至关重要.
- 城市规划者和城市管理者必须考虑土地使用的兼容性,以减轻风险.
- 调查结果支持实施有针对性的控制措施,应急响应计划和公共培训计划.
关键词:
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