马来西亚半岛的热浪:一个时空空间分析
Mohd Khairul Idlan Muhammad1, Mohammed Magdy Hamed2, Sobri Harun3
1Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310, Skudai, Johor, Malaysia. mohdkhairulidlan@utm.my.
Scientific reports
|February 21, 2024
概括
全球气温上升正在增加马来西亚的热浪严重程度. 这项研究分析了从1950年到2022年的热浪趋势,发现频率增加和受影响地区,特别是在西南部.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 全球变暖正在增加全球热浪的频率和严重性.
- 之前受影响较小的马来西亚现在正在经历重大热浪事件.
- 了解热浪模式对于制定有效的缓解和适应策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用使用每日最高 (Tmax) 和最低 (Tmin) 温度的新型热浪指数.
- 分析1950年至2022年半岛马来西亚 (PM) 热浪频率,严重程度和受影响人口的变化.
- 确定热浪特征及其社会影响的地理模式和趋势.
主要方法:
- 使用了每日ERA5温度数据 (0.25°分辨率,1950-2022) 和LandScan人口数据 (2000-2020).
- 根据Tmax定义的热浪,连续三天或更长时间超过95百分位.
- 在趋势分析中使用Sen的斜率来区分世俗趋势和振荡波动.
主要成果:
- 马来西亚半岛的热浪模式被重建,西南地区被确定为最容易受到严重事件的影响.
- 2000年以后,与2000年之前的时期相比,观察到热浪发生的数量显著增加.
- 该研究量化了受热浪影响的地区 (8.98公里/十年) 和持续时间 (1.54天/十年) 的增加,其中南部中部地区的人口影响最大.
结论:
- 半岛马来西亚正在经历热浪活动,频率和空间范围的明显上升趋势.
- 调查结果强调,迫切需要针对性的公共卫生干预和城市规划战略,以应对日益增长的热浪威胁.
- 持续监测和描述热浪事件对于马来西亚有效适应气候变化至关重要.
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