通过将生命周期评估和机器学习结合起来,预测小农小麦生产对环境的影响
Chunxiao Yu1, Gang Xu1, Ming Cai2
1State Key Laboratory of Herbage Improvement and Grassland Agro-ecosystems, Key Laboratory of Grassland Livestock Industry Innovation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Engineering Research Center of Grassland Industry, Ministry of Education, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730020, China.
The Science of the total environment
|February 22, 2024
概括
气候变化严重威胁到小农农场的小麦生产. 采用可持续的农业实践,如优化化肥料使用和吸草回收,可以大幅减少环境影响,减轻气候变化影响.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 小农小麦生产对于全球粮食安全至关重要,但易受气候变化的影响.
- 现有的研究往往忽视了未来气候情景下的农业实践对环境的具体影响.
研究的目的:
- 通过生命周期评估,评估小麦生产对环境的八种影响.
- 从2024年到2100年,在共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 中模拟不同农业实践的环境反应.
- 确定环境影响的关键驱动因素和小农场的有效减缓策略.
主要方法:
- 基于来自274个家庭的调查数据的小麦生产生命周期评估 (LCA).
- 开发具有21个输入特征的随机森林模型来预测环境影响.
- 在三个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 中进行情景分析:SSP119,SSP245和SSP585.
主要成果:
- 与2018-2020年基线相比,SSP的环境影响预计将每年增加5.88%至6.22%之间.
- 降雨变化是增加环境影响的主要驱动因素;气温上升没有显著关系.
- 标准化施肥和吸管回收显示,环境影响指数的显著降低.
结论:
- 改进的农业实践对于小型农场来说至关重要,以减轻气候变化对小麦生产的影响.
- 优化化肥料的应用和草的回收利用可以大大减少环境足迹.
- 实施这些战略对于在气候变化下小农农业系统的可持续性至关重要.
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