使用模糊信息的Premnotrypes Vorax种群的内在增长率和演变
Élder J Villamizar-Roa1, Leidy V Espitia-Cruz1, Gilberto Arenas-Díaz1
1Universidad Industrial de Santander, Escuela de Matemáticas, A.A. 678, Bucaramanga, Colombia.
Bio Systems
|February 22, 2024
概括
一个模糊的马尔萨斯模型估计了白马虫.
科学领域:
- 农业昆虫学 农业昆虫学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 模糊逻辑应用 模糊逻辑应用
背景情况:
- 白虫 (Premnotrypes Vorax) 对土豆作物造成重大破坏和经济损失.
- 有效的害虫防治需要了解虫的生命周期和生长速度,以进行有针对性的化学控制.
- 减少对环境的影响和确保利的土豆生产需要精确的害虫种群动态.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个模糊的马尔萨斯模型来预测白马虫种群动态.
- 为了估计Premnotrypes Vorax的内在生长率作为温度的函数.
- 解决一个模糊的初始值问题,用于预测害虫种群演变.
主要方法:
- 利用塔卡吉-苏杰诺-康类型的模糊规则模型来估计基于温度的内在生长率.
- 开发并解决了一个模糊的初始值问题,以建模随时间变化的人口变化.
- 纳入模糊逻辑来解释不准确的初始人口数据和增长率的变化.
主要成果:
- 白虫的内在生长速度可以根据每周的平均温度来估计.
- 一个模糊模型可以预测白虫种群在一段时间内,受初始种群不确定性的影响.
- 该模型为种植者提供了数据,以根据类型和频率对害虫控制决策提供信息.
结论:
- 取决于温度的模糊建模允许估计白虫的内在生长速度.
- 模糊的初始值问题有效地模拟了带有不准确数据的害虫种群动态.
- 这种方法有助于种植者做出明智的决定,以实现可持续和利的土豆种植.
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