健康衰老指数和脆弱指数对所有原因死亡率的预测能力
Felipe Diaz-Toro1,2, Gabriela Nazar3, Alejandra-Ximena Araya1,2
1Facultad de Enfermería, Escuela de Enfermería, Universidad Andrés Bello, Santiago, Chile.
GeroScience
|February 23, 2024
概括
一个新的健康衰老指数 (HAI) 和脆弱指数 (FI) 都预测了老年智利人的死亡率. 哈伊显示,对全因死亡风险的预测能力略有提高.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 人口老龄化对医疗保健系统构成挑战.
- 评估老年人的健康状况对于预测死亡率至关重要.
- 像脆弱性指数 (FI) 这样的现有指数需要与新型指标进行比较.
研究的目的:
- 为老年智利人开发和评估一个修改后的健康衰老指数 (HAI).
- 为了比较所有原因死亡率的HAI与FI的预测准确度.
- 确定这些指数在临床实践和研究中的有用性.
主要方法:
- 使用智利国家健康调查 (2009-2010) 进行的前性队列研究.
- 包括847名60岁以上的成年人,数据完整.
- 构建了HAI (5个指标) 和FI (36项规模);使用ROC曲线和Cox模型分析了死亡率预测.
主要成果:
- 平均HAI得分为4.06;平均FI得分为0.24.
- 健康衰老指数 (HAI) 显示,死亡率预测的曲线下面面积 (AUC) 比脆弱指数 (FI) (0.586) 高 (0.640).
- 调整后的考克斯模型表明,FI的死亡风险 (2.63) 与HAI (1.16) 相比较高.
结论:
- 脆弱指数 (FI) 和健康衰老指数 (HAI) 都是智利老年人群中所有原因死亡率的有效预测指标.
- 在某些方面,HAI对死亡风险的预测能力相似,在某些方面更优越.
- 这些指数的整合可以改善在临床和研究环境中识别有风险的个体.
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