儿童再录取的LACE分数的预测值
Jelena Douillard1, Sarah Lentz2, Shaina Ganjian2
1Southern California Permanente Medical Group, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
The Permanente journal
|February 23, 2024
概括
预测医院再入院的工具LACE得分显示儿童的预测能力较差. 需要进行进一步的研究,以开发有效的模型来减少儿科再入院.
科学领域:
- 儿科医疗保健研究的研究.
- 医疗服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 医学中的预测建模.
背景情况:
- 住院再接收代表着巨大的个人和经济负担.
- 使用LACE评分 (入院时间,入院急性,并发病,急诊室访问) 来预测重新入院.
- 有限的研究存在于儿童群体的LACE评分疗效.
研究的目的:
- 调查LACE得分对儿科医院再入院的预测能力.
- 利用LACE分数和其他因素开发儿科再入院的预测模型.
- 确定降低儿科再接收率的策略.
主要方法:
- 从电子医疗记录中分析了25616例儿科住院病例.
- 包括LACE分数,年龄,性别,种族/种族,收入和医疗中心数据.
- 利用回归建模和曲线下的面积 (AUC) 来评估7日,14日和30日再录取的预测能力.
主要成果:
- 只有年龄和LACE得分是30天再入院的统计学上显著预测因素.
- 综合预测模型的AUC达到0.69.
- 该模型表现出儿童再入院的预测能力较差.
结论:
- 劳斯得分,以及其他检查的因素,展现出儿童再入院的预测能力较差.
- 目前的预测模型不足以准确识别处于再接收高风险儿童.
- 需要进行进一步的研究,以增强儿科再接收减少的预测模型.
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