权衡结构损害和社会易感性:一个决策工具,对地理大范围的危险事件进行纵向研究
Blythe Johnston1, John van de Lindt1
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|February 23, 2024
概括
本研究介绍了一种快速的方法来选择灾难后的社区,使用社会因素来预测长期恢复和指导现场研究,以更好地分析灾难影响.
科学领域:
- 灾难科学 灾难科学
- 社区的性 社区的性
- 社会脆弱性 社会的脆弱性
背景情况:
- 大规模气候危险事件的频率越来越高,需要改进灾害研究方法.
- 目前为事件后研究选择社区的方法往往忽略了关键的社会因素和跨学科的见解.
- 需要一种标准化,快速的方法来捕获易损坏的灾难数据,并了解长期的社区趋势.
研究的目的:
- 介绍一种用于选择灾难现场研究社区的新方法.
- 将社区层面的社会因素与预期的损害结合起来,以便进行更具预测性的选择.
- 开发一种可快速实施的工具,用于评估长期事件后的社区恢复和衰退.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个社区一级的社会指标,使用2011-2013年间对危险事件的后预测.
- 建立了基于预测和实际结果的社区稳定和衰退的门.
- 在2021年四州龙卷风爆发后的实地研究中创建和实施社区选择的决策工具.
主要成果:
- 社会指标准确地预测了73%的社区的复苏.
- 社会指标准确地预测了74%的社区的下降.
- 基于现场实施的经验教训,开发了一种精细的决策工具.
结论:
- 开发的社会指标和决策工具增强了灾难现场研究的选择过程.
- 整合社会因素有助于预测灾后社区的长期恢复和衰退.
- 该工具的快速实施性对于及时获取灾难数据和为未来的研究提供信息至关重要.
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