芬兰2000-2020年劳动能力趋势和出生队列预测到2040年
Jouni Lahti1, Jaakko Reinikainen1, Jukka Kontto1
1Department of Public Health and Welfare, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland.
Scandinavian journal of public health
|February 23, 2024
概括
在芬兰出生队伍中,感知到的工作能力正在下降,预测表明下降趋势将继续下降. 需要紧急干预,以抵消未来劳动力的下降.
科学领域:
- 职业健康 职业健康 职业健康
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 感知到的工作能力是员工健康和可持续性的关键指标.
- 了解年龄组和出生队列趋势对于预测未来的劳动力能力至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析2000年至2020年芬兰年龄组和出生队列对感知工作能力的趋势.
- 根据观察到的出生队列发展,预测未来的感知到2040年的工作能力.
主要方法:
- 利用了芬兰 (2000-2020年) 的十项人口代表性横截面调查 (N=61,087).
- 自我报告的工作能力 (0-10级) 被分为有限 (0-5级),中等 (6-7级) 和良好 (8-10级) 的类别.
- 采用多重归算来预测未来的工作能力趋势.
主要成果:
- 年龄较大的出生队伍中,工作能力稳步下降;年轻的队伍在2017年之前表现稳定,随后大幅下降 (2017-2020年).
- 按年龄组的趋势 (2000-2020年) 显示,20至44岁的人群的良好工作能力下降,45至54岁的人群稳定,55岁以上的人群改善.
- 预测显示,到2040年,45-74岁的人群的良好工作能力将下降10-15个百分点.
结论:
- 预计到2040年,所有年龄组 (30-74岁) 的感知工作能力都将下降.
- 需要做出重大努力来抵消预期的劳动能力下降.
- 研究结果强调,需要采取主动策略来维持劳动力健康和生产力.
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