在世界贸易网络中形成意见
Célestin Coquidé1, José Lages1, Dima L Shepelyansky2
1Équipe de Physique Théorique, Institut UTINAM, Université de Franche-Comté, CNRS, 25000 Besançon, France.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|February 23, 2024
概括
一个新的模型显示,到2014年,大多数国家都更愿意以假设的BRI货币而不是美元进行交易. 这种经济模型分析了货币对全球贸易网络的影响.
科学领域:
- 经济建模经济建模
- 国际贸易分析 国际贸易分析
- 网络科学 网络科学
背景情况:
- 经济组织和货币偏好在全球贸易中的影响是复杂的.
- 了解货币动态对于分析国际经济关系至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过形成论的方法,模拟经济组织在世界上的影响力.
- 分析国际贸易网络中主要货币 (美元,BRI,欧元,CNY) 之间的战斗.
主要方法:
- 在2010-2020年使用联合国商贸数据构建了一个世界贸易网络.
- 开发了一个论形成模型,模拟货币偏好战.
- 采用蒙特卡洛过程来确定非核心国家的贸易货币偏好.
主要成果:
- 从2014年开始,大多数国家都倾向于假设的"一带一路"倡议货币而不是美元.
- 蒙特卡洛模拟结果是稳定状态,具有不同的BRI和USD偏好组,以及一个摇摆组.
- 对三种货币 (美元,一带一路,欧元) 的分析表明,欧元的偏好与从两种货币模型中来看的摇摆国家保持一致.
结论:
- 该研究提供了对货币影响和全球贸易偏好转变的见解.
- 该模型强调了像一带一路这样的替代货币与像美元这样的既定货币的潜在起.
- 进一步分析探讨了OPEC+经济体通过OPE货币的经济影响.
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