每日热带降雨极端的加剧来自更有组织的对流
Jiawei Bao1,2, Bjorn Stevens1, Lukas Kluft1
1Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, Hamburg, 20146, Germany.
Science advances
|February 23, 2024
概括
由于对流组织的增加,热带降雨极端随着全球变暖而加剧. 暴风雨变得更大但频率更低,导致更多的极端降雨超过克劳西乌斯-克莱佩隆缩放在温暖的气候.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 大气物理大气物理学
- 热带气象学 热带气象学
背景情况:
- 热带降雨极端对于气候影响至关重要.
- 传统的全球气候模型难以代表中等规模的对流组织.
- 了解全球变暖下的极端降雨变化至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 研究热带降水极端情况及其对表面变暖的反应.
- 评估对流组织在每日极端降水中的作用.
- 预测极端降雨强度的未来变化.
主要方法:
- 利用全球风暴解决模拟.
- 使用高分辨率的观测数据进行验证.
- 分析了每天累积的极端降水变化的变化.
主要成果:
- 中级对流组织显著影响热带每日降水极端.
- 模拟和观测显示,随着组织的加强 (更大,更少频繁的风暴),极端的增加.
- 更温暖的气候模拟有力地增加了每月平均每日降水极端值,更高的百分位数显示了对组织的更大敏感性.
结论:
- 对流组织是了解未来热带极端降水的关键.
- 如果没有组织的变化,极端就会遵循克劳西乌斯-克莱佩隆缩放.
- 在温暖的气候中增加组织将导致极端降水超过CC缩放,特别是在海洋上.
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