研究缓刑撤销实践:考虑竞争事件之间的依赖性
William Rhodes1, Gerald Gaes1,2, William Sabol3
1RSG CJ Analytics LLC, Crofton, MD, USA.
Evaluation review
|February 24, 2024
概括
将个人因技术违规 (骚扰行为) 返回监狱,可能会减少严重犯罪 (有害行为),因为它们之间有很强的相关性. 骚扰行为可以预示未来的严重违法行为.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 公共政策 公共政策
背景情况:
- 从监狱释放的个人接受特定行为条件的社区监督.
- 违反这些条件或犯下轻微罪行往往会导致再次入狱.
- 由于技术不合规而导致的违法行为和由于新犯罪活动而导致的违法行为之间存在区别.
研究的目的:
- 在隔离后的监督中,区分骚扰行为 (技术违规) 和有害行为 (严重的新犯罪).
- 开发不同的结构模型来分析这两种类型的行为.
- 调查解决骚扰行为对有害行为发生率的潜在影响.
主要方法:
- 竞争风险生存分析的应用.
- 针对麻烦和有害行为的单独结构模型的开发.
- 统计分析以确定骚扰和有害行为之间的相关性.
主要成果:
- 该研究成功地区分了烦和有害行为的结构模型.
- 研究人员发现,骚扰行为和有害行为的发生之间存在很高的相关性.
- 由于骚扰行为,将罪犯送回监狱被证明有可能减少有害行为的发生率.
结论:
- 骚扰行为是未来有害行为可能性的重要指标.
- 针对技术违规行为的干预措施可能间接降低严重犯罪率.
- 这些发现支持在社区监督期间监控和处理轻微违规行为的预测价值.
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