一个样本里面有什么? 在承担风险方面,认识不确定性和元认知意识
Sebastian Olschewski1, Benjamin Scheibehenne2
1Department of Psychology, University of Basel, Switzerland; Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, United Kingdom.
Cognitive psychology
|February 24, 2024
概括
人们将他们的冒险行为适应认知不准确性,这是不确定性下决策的关键因素. 这种超认知能力对于面对不确定性时的有效行为至关重要.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 在不确定的环境中有效的行为依赖于健全的信息处理.
- 认知过程本质上是不精确的,导致认识体系的不确定性.
- 决策者在冒险时需要适应认知不准确性.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究在承担风险时对认知不准确性的元认知适应.
- 为了确定个人是否根据他们的估计准确性来调整他们的行为.
- 通过结合认知局限性来挑战传统的贝叶斯模型.
主要方法:
- 进行了两项实验,参与者从顺序数据样本中估计预期值.
- 参与者押注于他们自己的估计准确度,反映出冒险行为.
- 开发了一个结合贝叶斯更新与元认知意识的计算模型.
主要成果:
- 估计不准确性随着分布标准偏差的增加而增加.
- 参与者根据他们的估计不准确性调整了他们的冒险行为.
- 观察到的行为偏离了贝叶斯模型的预测,假设完美的信息整合.
结论:
- 认知不准确性是理解从经验中做出决定的风险承担的一个关键因素.
- 对认知不准确性的元认知意识对于不确定性下的适应性行为至关重要.
- 开发的计算模型有效地通过整合贝叶斯更新和元认知来解释决策.
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