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一种基于未来气候和土地使用变化情景的新洪水风险管理方法
Huu Duy Nguyen1, Quoc-Huy Nguyen1, Dinh Kha Dang2
1Faculty of Geography, VNU University of Science, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, 334 Nguyen Trai, Thanh Xuan District, Hanoi, Viet Nam.
The Science of the total environment
|February 24, 2024
概括
气候变化和城市化显著增加了全球洪水风险. 这项研究结合了机器学习和液压建模,以预测未来的洪水易感性,暴露和脆弱性,突出了综合洪水风险管理的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 地理信息系统 地理信息系统
背景情况:
- 气候变化和日益增长的城市化是全球洪水风险增加的主要驱动因素.
- 预测土地使用/土地覆盖 (LULC) 和气候变化对洪水风险的影响对于减少损害战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的方法,整合机器学习和液压建模,在气候变化和LULC场景下预测洪水风险.
- 评估LULC,气候变化和社会经济因素对洪水易感性,深度和速度的综合影响.
主要方法:
- 采用XGBoost,CatBoost,LightGBM和ExtraTree机器学习模型来预测2005年,2020年,2035年和2050年的基于LULC的洪水易感性.
- 在RCP 8.5气候变化场景下利用液压建模来预测洪水深度和速度.
- 综合LULC,人口密度,贫困率,人口统计和基础设施数据与洪水危险,暴露和脆弱性,使用综合洪水风险评估的分析层次过程.
主要成果:
- 高和非常高的洪水风险,暴露和脆弱性区域在2005年至2020年间迅速增加,预计在2035年和2050年增加.
- 洪水风险的升级归因于气候变化动态,LULC转移,人口增长以及洪水区内脆弱人群 (如妇女,学校) 的存在.
- 该研究生成了地图,说明了过去和未来的洪水风险,详细说明了城市地区在洪水易发地区的空间分布.
结论:
- 洪水风险受到环境和社会经济变化的相互作用的重大影响.
- 综合性洪水风险管理策略对于未来的规划和减缓工作至关重要.
- 开发的洪水风险地图为优先考虑城市发展和实施有效的洪水减缓措施提供了关键的空间洞察力.
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