在模拟模型中使用特定年龄的比率进行参数生存功能的估计
Arantzazu Arrospide1,2,3, Oliver Ibarrondo2,3,4, Rubén Blasco-Aguado5
1Ministry of Health of the Basque Government, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain.
概括
本研究提出了一种模拟事件时间的方法,用于个人级别模型的年龄特定率. 戈珀茨分布最适合数据,可以在没有单个记录的情况下准确地采样事件时间.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 个人级别的模拟模型对于健康经济评估至关重要.
- 这些模型通常需要个别患者的数据,这些数据可能并不总是可用.
- 特定年龄的事件率通常是可访问的,但直接的个人数据缺乏.
研究的目的:
- 描述将参数函数纳入个体级模拟模型的程序.
- 在只有特定年龄的比率可用时,采样时间到事件数据.
- 在缺少个人级数据的情况下,以促进模拟建模.
主要方法:
- 参数生存分布 (Weibull,Gompertz,日志-正常,日志-逻辑) 通过回归分析使用特定年龄事件率进行参数化.
- 最适合的分布是使用R平方统计学来选择的.
- 选择的参数函数被应用于模拟模型中事件的随机时间分配,以西班牙的中风率为例.
主要成果:
- 戈珀茨,韦布尔和日志常态分布表现出很好的数据适合到85岁的年龄.
- 戈珀茨分布被确定为最适合的分布,基于它的适合性.
- 该程序成功地将参数风险函数纳入模拟模型.
结论:
- 为将参数风险函数集成到单个级别的模拟模型中提供了一个简单的程序.
- 这种方法可以通过使用易于获得的特定年龄率来模拟时间到事件数据.
- 该方法允许将参数不确定性纳入模拟,这对于概率灵敏度分析至关重要.
相关概念视频
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