未来气候变暖会导致动物传播疾病在很远的距离上传播吗?
Fan Bu1,2,3, Xiuxian Yue4, Shanshan Sun1,2,3
1Key Laboratory of Grassland Resources, Ministry of Education, Hohhot, China.
PeerJ
|February 26, 2024
概括
气候变化影响了三脚 (Dipus sagitta) 的分布,这是一种携带疾病的动物. 它的息地预计将在未来缩小,需要人口控制策略.
科学领域:
- 生态建模 生态建模
- 气候变化影响评估 气候变化影响评估
- 动物种群动态 动物种群动态
背景情况:
- 三脚 (Dipus sagitta) 是干旱环境中的重要动物,由于通过寄生虫跳传播疾病,它存在风险.
- 了解其分布对于管理其生态和人类健康影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 模拟Dipus sagitta在不同气候时期的潜在分布 (最后的冰川最大期,Holocene中期,现在和未来).
- 分析人口分布的地理变化,并确定关键的气候驱动因素.
- 为了评估所使用的生态利基模型的预测性能.
主要方法:
- 使用MaxEnt模型利用了216个分布记录和7个环境变量.
- 使用接收器运行特征 (ROC) 和部分ROC (pROC) 度量评估模型的预测能力.
- 通过贡献率,替代重要性值和大刀测试分析了气候因素的重要性.
主要成果:
- 马克森特模型显示出优异的预测性能 (AUC > 0.9).
- 影响分布的关键气候因素包括最冷季度的降雨量,温度季节性和平均年温度.
- 合适的息地在Holocene中期扩大,但预计在未来的变暖情景下会减少 (RCP4.5: -2.96%,RCP8.5: -7.41%),南方收缩和北方扩张的趋势.
结论:
- 气候变化显著改变了Dipus sagitta的地理分布.
- 未来的息地丧失需要积极的人口控制和动物传染病预防策略.
- 了解这些变化对于干旱地区的生态管理和公共卫生至关重要.
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