分析印度河流盆地 (1901-2021) 的时空干旱特征和基于的回归期
Debarati Bera1, Dipanwita Dutta2
1Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Vidyasagar University, Midnapore, West Bengal, India.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|February 26, 2024
概括
印度河流平原的干旱变得越来越频繁和严重,特别是在1965年之后. 这项研究使用标准化降水指数 (SPI) 分析了干旱模式,发现干旱持续时间和严重程度的趋势越来越大,影响农业.
科学领域:
- 气候学和农业气象学
- 水文科学 水文科学
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 季风降雨的变化对印度印度河平原的作物生产构成重大风险.
- 了解干旱模式对于农业规划和水资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查印度河流域干旱特征 (频率,持续时间,严重程度,强度) 的时空模式.
- 分析干旱趋势及其对该地区农业的影响.
- 应用两种多种方法来建模干旱的严重程度和持续时间.
主要方法:
- 分析印度气象局 (IMD) 从1901年到2021年的降水数据.
- 标准化降水指数 (SPI) 在不同时间尺度上的应用.
- 利用运行理论来分析干旱特征.
- 采用双变性合法 (圆和阿基米德家族) 来建模干旱的严重程度和持续时间.
主要成果:
- 在上游和中游江河平原,季节性干旱更频繁,更强烈.
- 在1965年之后,特别是在上,中和河平原地区观察到显著的下降干旱趋势.
- 持续时间较长,严重程度较高的干旱会出现更长的回归期,在1960年以后,特别是2000年以后,100年或更长的回归期干旱显著增加.
结论:
- 该研究提供了关键的农业气候区域特定的信息,关于印度甘流域干旱的发生和特征.
- 这些发现提高了对干旱动态的理解,有助于制定有效的干旱管理和适应性战略.
- 该研究强调了关键农业地区严重干旱的威胁日益增加,需要采取积极的缓解措施.
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