空间解析的土地和网格模型的碳中和在中国
Da Zhang1, Ziheng Zhu1, Shi Chen2
1Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
概括
中国需要大规模的可再生能源 (RE) 扩张,以实现2060年的碳中和. 规划必须平衡土地使用,电网整合和成功部署风能和太阳能发电的成本.
科学领域:
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 计划可再生能源的规划
背景情况:
- 中国的目标是到2060年实现碳中和,需要大量部署负排放技术和可再生能源 (RE).
- 泰拉瓦特规模的可再生能源部署面临土地使用限制的挑战,影响电力系统运营和经济.
研究的目的:
- 为评估可再生能源资源和优化电力系统规划开发一个空间解析模型.
- 分析土地利用,再生能源资源质量,电网整合和中国大规模低碳系统的成本之间的权衡.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个空间解决的资源评估和电力系统规划优化模型.
- 该模型模拟了整整一年的电力系统运行情况,并结合了次省级可再生能源安置标准和输电连接.
- 分析考虑了当前的土地使用政策和更严格的定位法规的潜在影响.
主要成果:
- 风能和太阳能容量必须扩大到2000-3900吉瓦,每年增加到300吉瓦/年,在2046-2060年之间.
- 根据目前的政策,超过80%的太阳能和55%的风能位于负载中心100公里以内.
- 更严格的定位可以使740吉瓦的分布式太阳能在高需求地区经济可行.
结论:
- 实现中国的气候目标需要平衡土地利用,可再生能源质量,电网整合和成本.
- 有效的规划和政策制定对于成功的大规模可再生能源部署至关重要.
- 分布式太阳能在具有有限公用事业规模部署潜力的地区提供了可行的替代方案.
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