巴西中部的现代人为干旱在过去的700年里是前所未有的
Nicolas Misailidis Stríkis1,2, Plácido Fabrício Silva Melo Buarque3,4,5,6, Francisco William Cruz3
1Instituto de Geociências, Universidade de São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, São Paulo-SP, Brazil. strikis@usp.br.
Nature communications
|February 26, 2024
概括
巴西中东地区目前的干旱条件,以水文赤字为标志,是720年来前所未有的. 这种严重的干旱主要是由人类引起的温室气体排放引起的,而不是自然气候变化.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 了解气候变化和外部强迫对于预测未来的水文变化至关重要.
- 蒸发需求对季节性降雨的热带地区产生重大影响,如沙漠和半沙漠生物群.
- 巴西中东地区经历了高降水季节性,因此容易受到水文平衡变化的影响.
研究的目的:
- 调查巴西中东地区水文缺口的原因.
- 用地化学代理来重建过去的蒸发需求和降水模式.
- 将观测到的水文平衡变化归因于自然或人为因素.
主要方法:
- 在巴西中东部一个洞穴的洞穴中分析地化学代理物.
- 过去720年的蒸发需求和降水趋势的重建.
- 检测和归因研究,以区分自然和人为气候强迫.
主要成果:
- 洞穴地质化学表明存在显著的水文赤字,蒸发需求超过了降水量.
- 从20世纪70年代开始的严重变暖趋势改变了巴西中东地区的水文平衡.
- 目前的干旱程度在过去720年的洞穴记录中是无与伦比的.
结论:
- 最近巴西中东地区的水文赤字和变暖趋势主要是由人为的温室气体排放驱动的.
- 仅仅是自然气候变异性无法解释观察到的严重干旱状况.
- 未来的温室气体排放可能会加剧南美洲东部亚热带地区的长期干旱.
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