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Timo Conradi¹, Urs Eggli², Holger Kreft^3,4,5

¹Plant Ecology, University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany. timo.conradi@uni-bayreuth.de.

Nature ecology & evolution

|February 26, 2024

概括

气候变化将在全球显著改变植物气候,影响生态系统. 随着这些植物气候变化不同于简单的气候变化暴露,出现了新的保护优先事项,需要适应生物多样性管理.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
气候变化生物学气候变化生物学
保护科学保护科学

背景情况:

准确预测气候变化对物种和生态系统的风险对于有效的保护至关重要.
仅基于气候暴露的先前风险评估可能无法充分确定由于复杂的生态反应而导致的保护优先事项.
了解气候变化如何影响植物生长和生态系统组成,对于预测未来生物圈转型至关重要.

研究的目的:

通过将生态生理学模型与气候数据相结合,开发一种评估气候变化风险的新方法.
将气候数据转化为"植物气候",代表气候支持植物生长形式的能力.
预测全球植物气候的变化,并确定新的保护优先事项.

主要方法:

结合了135,153种血管植物的生态生理生长模型,并提供了植物生长形式数据.
将当前和未来的气候数据 (气候学) 转换为植物气候.
利用代表性度路径 (RCP) 2.6 和 8.5 来预测到2070年的未来变化.

主要成果:

预测显示,到2070年,全球33%至68%的陆地表面将出现显著的植物气候变化.
在0.3-2.2%的土地上可能出现新的植物气候 (没有当今类型),而0.1-1.3%的现有植物气候可能会消失.
植物气候变化,出现和消失的地理模式与仅仅通过气候暴露预测的不同,突出了新的保护优先事项.

结论:

气候变化正在推动全球生物圈的深刻转变.
传统的气候变化暴露指数对于生态风险评估和保护规划是不够的.
生物多样性管理实践必须适应这些新的植物气候条件和新兴的保护优先事项.

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