伊拉克战争中的暴力死亡人数:2003-2023年
1Department of Economics, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, United Kingdom.
PloS one
|February 27, 2024
概括
这项研究通过分析主要来源,对伊拉克战争中暴力死亡的估计进行了改进. 它验证了追踪战争伤亡的方法,强调需要考虑数字之外的人力成本.
科学领域:
- 冲突研究 冲突研究
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 统计分析 统计分析
背景情况:
- 自2003年3月开始的伊拉克战争一直因其死亡人数引发重大争议.
- 准确量化暴力死亡对于理解冲突的影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 缩小暴力死亡人数和伊拉克战争趋势的不确定性范围.
- 评估用于伤亡估计的初级数据来源.
- 验证用于测量与战争有关的死亡率的方法.
主要方法:
- 汇集并评估了主要来源:六个样本调查和伊拉克尸体计数 (IBC) 伤亡记录项目.
- 提交了累计的月度数据,其中95%的调查不确定性间隔已经启动.
- 确定并排除了具有重大方法缺陷的异常调查.
主要成果:
- 从数据分析中,一个核心组的高质量,一致的主流来源出现了.
- 三项异常调查被认为是有缺陷的,产生了主流之外的估计.
- 伊拉克尸体计数数据,当包括战斗人员时,将其与经过验证的主流估计统一.
结论:
- 高质量来源的一致性验证了基于家庭的调查,基于兄弟姐妹的调查和事故记录方法.
- 通过排除有缺陷的数据,可以更清楚地了解伊拉克战争的暴力死亡人数.
- 虽然数字很重要,但要理解人类的全部成本,需要超越定量数据.
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