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基于未来土地使用模拟模型的景观生态风险预测在江流域的局部共享社会经济路径下,中国
Zhengyu Zhang1, Han Yu2, Nianci He3
1School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, China.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|February 27, 2024
概括
江河流域的景观生态风险 (LER) 在本地化共享社会经济路径 (LSSPs) 下显示未来的强度较低. 风险区划有助于管理,SSP1显示高风险地区减少.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 地理信息科学 地理信息科学
背景情况:
- 景观生态风险 (LER) 评估对于区域生态安全至关重要.
- 本地化共享社会经济路径 (LSSPs) 为LER研究提供多场景发展参数.
- 了解LSSP下的LER对于管理生态风险区域至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测到2030年在五个LSSP场景下,预测土地覆盖模式并评估江河流域 (XJRB) 的LER.
- 为流域LER建立一个评估模型.
- 在县级进行风险区分,以实现差异化管理.
主要方法:
- 使用土地覆盖数据 (2010-2020年) 作为基础数据.
- 采用未来土地利用模拟 (FLUS),回归和马尔科夫链模型用于土地覆盖率预测.
- 建立了一个评估模型来评估LER在LSSP场景中.
主要成果:
- 在XJRB中,土地覆盖面变化强度 (每十年18.89%) 历史上高于LSSP (每十年8.58%) 的预测.
- 城市土地的增长率最高 (33.3%).
- 从2010年到2030年,LER主要是较低 (33.73%) 和最低 (33.11%) 的风险,中等风险为24.13%.
- 与其他情景相比,本地化SSP1情景显示最高和较高LER区域的显着减少.
结论:
- 在XJRB中的LER在不同场景中异质,局部SSP1提供了最有利的风险降低.
- 未来的LER预测强调了需要针对特定场景的管理策略.
- 县级风险区划为XJRB的有针对性的生态风险管理提供了一个框架.
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