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人口老龄化对不同全球变暖水平的未来温度相关死亡率的影响
Kai Chen1,2, Evan de Schrijver3,4, Sidharth Sivaraj3,4
1Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. kai.chen@yale.edu.
Nature communications
|February 27, 2024
概括
人口老龄化显著增加了与热有关的死亡人数,并对应了变暖.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 老年人面临极端温度带来的风险增加.
- 预计全球变暖将加剧与温度相关的健康问题.
- 人口老龄化对这些趋势的具体影响尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 在不同的全球变暖情景下,量化人口老龄化对与热和寒有关的死亡率的影响.
- 评估人口老龄化对温度相关死亡的贡献.
主要方法:
- 分析了来自50个国家/地区800个地点的死亡数据.
- 在1.5°C,2°C和3°C的全球变暖下,模拟与温度相关的死亡率变化.
- 将死亡率变化归因于人口老龄化.
主要成果:
- 预计与热相关的死亡率将增加0.5% (1.5°C),1.0% (2°C) 和2.5% (3°C).
- 人口老龄化占预计与热有关的死亡人数的20-25%.
- 人口老龄化将导致与寒冷相关的死亡率净增加 (0.1%-0.4%),尽管全球变暖.
结论:
- 人口老龄化是推动未来与温度有关的死亡率的一个关键因素.
- 人口老龄化加剧了来自极端热和极端寒冷的死亡风险.
- 缓解和适应战略必须考虑到人口向老年人口的变化.
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