当证据发生变化时:沟通不确定性可以防止失去信任
Charlotte Dries1, Michelle McDowell, Felix G Rebitschek2
1University of Potsdam, Germany.
Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)
|February 28, 2024
概括
沟通关于科学发现的不确定性有助于在新证据出现时保持公众的信任. 解释不确定性的原因不会对信任产生负面影响,即使初步发现被推翻了.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生传播 公共卫生传播
- 对科学的信任 科学的信任
- 风险沟通 风险沟通
背景情况:
- 科学发现随着新的证据而变化.
- 了解不确定性沟通如何影响信任对于公共卫生当局至关重要.
- 之前的研究还没有完全探索解释不确定性在不断发展的科学景观的细微差别.
研究的目的:
- 调查沟通不确定性对公共卫生机构信任的影响.
- 为了确定解释不确定性的原因是否会影响科学发现发生变化时的信任.
- 评估不同类型的不确定性沟通对公众信任的影响.
主要方法:
- 在线实验与800名参与者.
- 参与者评估了关于COVID-19疫苗和心脏炎症的虚构公共卫生声明.
- 四个条件:没有不确定性,不确定的不确定性,不准确的不确定性,不完整数据的不确定性.
- 在证据更新之前和之后的可信度评级,表明疫苗与炎症的联系.
主要成果:
- 沟通不确定性缓冲了科学发现更新时的信任损失.
- 解释不确定性的原因 (不准确或不完整的数据) 并没有损害信任.
- 不确定性沟通的类型影响了保持信任的程度.
结论:
- 积极沟通不确定性可以减轻科学证据发展时的信任侵蚀.
- 解释科学不确定性来源的透明度对于保持信誉至关重要.
- 公共卫生信息应该考虑将解释的不确定性纳入,以培养有弹性的公众信任.
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