预测和预防枪支暴力:READI芝加哥的实验评估
Monica P Bhatt1, Sara B Heller2, Max Kapustin3
1University of Chicago Crime Lab and Education Lab.
概括
快速就业和发展倡议 (READI) 芝加哥计划显示,整体严重暴力事件没有显著减少. 然而,它显著减少了枪击和杀人案件的逮捕,在外展工作人员推的子组中取得了显著的成功.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 社会政策 社会政策 社会政策
背景情况:
- 枪支暴力是美国城市的关键公共安全问题.
- 现有干预措施需要严格的评估来确定有效性.
- 社区与研究人员的合作伙伴关系为减少暴力提供了一种新的方法.
研究的目的:
- 评估快速就业和发展倡议 (READI) 芝加哥计划对枪支暴力的影响.
- 评估将就业机会与认知行为疗法和社会支持相结合的有效性.
- 为了比较算法和人类推方法来识别高风险个体.
主要方法:
- 一个随机对照试验 (RCT) 的READI芝加哥计划.
- 该计划提供了18个月的工作,认知行为疗法和社会支持.
- 参与者通过算法和人类推方法进行识别.
主要成果:
- 20个月后,严重暴力的主要结果指数在统计学上没有显著变化.
- 在参与者中,枪击和杀人案件的逮捕率下降了65%.
- 在外展推介者中,枪击和杀人事件的逮捕和受害人数显著减少 (79%和43%),特别是那些预测风险较高的人.
结论:
- 芝加哥READI计划显示出前景,特别是在减少特定子组内的逮捕和受害者.
- 人类和算法定位的结合可能会提高干预的有效性.
- 该计划显示了社会成本节约的强大潜力和有利的效益成本比率.
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