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土耳其自杀的驱动因素:一种计量经济学的方法
1Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Afyon Kocatepe University, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey.
Omega
|February 28, 2024
概括
经济不确定性和痛苦指数在土耳其推动了自杀,而经济增长和工业减少了自杀. 改善社会经济因素是制自杀行为的关键.
科学领域:
- 社会经济学 社会经济学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 全球范围内,自杀率是一个重大的公共卫生问题.
- 了解自杀的长期社会经济驱动因素对于有效的预防策略至关重要.
- 之前的研究已经探讨了各种因素,但经济不确定性和痛苦指数的影响需要进一步调查,特别是在发展中国家.
研究的目的:
- 调查土耳其自杀率与关键社会经济指标之间的长期关系.
- 具体分析经济不确定性和痛苦指数对自杀事件的影响.
- 确定其他影响长期自杀率的重要决定因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了土耳其从1980年到2019年的年度时间序列数据.
- 采用增强自回归分布式滞后 (AARDL) 模型来评估协同整合和长期影响.
- 研究了包括经济增长,工业产出,烟草消费,不确定性和痛苦指数在内的变量的影响.
主要成果:
- 证实了土耳其自杀率和所选的决定因素之间长期的共同整合关系.
- 发现增加的经济不确定性和更高的痛苦指数与增加的自杀率有显著的关联.
- 观察到,经济增长和工业产出对自杀率有显著的抑制作用,而烟草消费则显示出积极的关联.
结论:
- 以不确定性和痛苦指数衡量的经济不稳定和痛苦是土耳其自杀率的重要因素.
- 经济增长和工业发展似乎具有保护作用,可能减少自杀事件的发生.
- 专注于改善社会经济条件,促进经济稳定和减少痛苦的政策干预措施对于像土耳其这样的开放经济体发展中的自杀预防至关重要.
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