空气污染的长远经济后果建模的可能性和局限性 - - 一个案例研究
Zoltán Lakner1, József Popp2,3, Judit Oláh2,3,4
1Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Hungary.
Heliyon
|February 29, 2024
概括
空气污染对匈牙利经济产生重大影响,由于失去了劳动年龄人口,匈牙利的国内生产总值 (GDP) 每年减少4.1-9.4%. 解决污染问题对于经济发展和降低医疗保健成本至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 宏观经济建模 宏观经济建模
背景情况:
- 在现代社会中,空气污染对环境和健康构成重大挑战.
- 相关的医疗保健成本对国家经济造成了巨大的财务负担.
研究的目的:
- 量化匈牙利空气污染对经济造成的不利影响.
- 为长期能源战略制定提供数据驱动的财务论据.
主要方法:
- 基于Cobb-Douglas生产函数和Solow-Swann模型的稳健模型的开发.
- 利用公开可用的,经过质量控制的统计资源进行经济损失估计.
- 整合健康经济和计量经济学的方法.
主要成果:
- 预计未来50年,空气污染将使匈牙利的国内生产总值 (GDP) 每年下降4.1-9.4%.
- 劳动年龄人口的减少被确定为主要的经济负担.
- 与空气污染相关的额外医疗保健费用占GDP的0.1%.
结论:
- 使用宏观经济理论和统计数据,可以构建描述空气污染影响的可量化的经济模型.
- 模型可靠性取决于初始参数和基础假设的有效性.
- 减少空气污染是对经济发展的投资,而不仅仅是改善生活质量.
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