骨髓剂量计的随机参数方法的不确定性为89.90Sr
Elena A Shishkina1,2, Pavel A Sharagin1, Evgenia I Tolstykh1
1Urals Research Center for Radiation Medicine, Chelyabinsk, Russia.
Heliyon
|February 29, 2024
概括
这项研究量化了从寻找骨的同位素对活跃骨髓 (AM) 辐射暴露的建模中的不确定性. 随机参数骨剂量计 (SPSD) 模型显示固有的不确定性高达50%,引入的不确定性高达16%.
科学领域:
- 辐射科学 辐射科学
- 剂量计和辐射保护技术
- 生物物理学的生物物理.
背景情况:
- 像-89和-90这样的寻找骨的放射性核素对长期健康构成风险,特别是对活跃的骨髓 (AM).
- 精确的剂量测量对于评估长期受污染的人群的风险至关重要,例如在南乌拉尔地区.
研究的目的:
- 评估与骨寻找-89和-90.0的活体髓 (AM) 暴露的剂量计建模相关的不确定性.
- 开发和应用随机参数骨剂量计 (SPSD) 模型来估计剂量因子及其不确定性.
主要方法:
- 随机参数骨剂量计 (SPSD) 模型的开发和应用.
- 剂量因子的计算 (DF(AM ← TBV) 和DF(AM ← CBV)) 将骨体中的放射性核素活性转换为AM剂量速率.
- 不确定性的细分和量化为固有的 (生物变异性) 和引入的 (模型简化) 组件.
主要成果:
- 发现骨平均剂量因子的固有不确定性约为40-50%,主要是由于AM分布和骨架构变化.
- 与SPSD模型方法相关的引入不确定性不超过16%,主要受到骨形状造型的影响.
- 对于DF ((AM ← TBV) 和DF ((AM ← CBV) 的总体不确定性分别低于55%和63%.
结论:
- 该SPSD模型提供了一个强大的框架,用于估计来自骨寻找的AM剂量不确定性.
- 量化不确定性对于提高回顾性剂量计的准确性至关重要,例如在Techa河剂量计系统 (TRDS-2016MC) 中.
- 了解这些不确定性可以提高疫情学研究和污染人口风险评估剂量估计的可靠性.
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