预测目前和未来的气候适合在印度的树 (Areca catechu L.) 使用整体模型的适合性
K B Hebbar1, Abhin Sukumar P1, Sanjo Jose V2
1Indian Council of Agricultural Research - Central Plantation Crops Research Institute, Kasaragod, Kerala, India.
Heliyon
|February 29, 2024
概括
气候变化威胁着坚果种植,模型预测到2070年代,高度适合的地区将大幅减少. 适应性策略对于在不断变化的气候条件下维持桃 (Areca catechu L.) 产量至关重要.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球农业构成重大威胁,影响作物开发,生理和分布.
- 长寿热带作物Arecanut (Areca catechu L.) 特别容易受到气候引起的非生物和生物压力.
- 了解子地区的长期适应策略对于确保热带地区的粮食安全和经济稳定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测气候变化对印度各地子种植适宜性的影响.
- 确定最容易受到气候变化影响的地区,并评估适合种植面积的潜在转移.
- 为可持续发展的坚果生产提供信息,以制定适应性战略.
主要方法:
- 利用Biomod2组合平台进行物种分布建模.
- 采用了6个整体模型,其中有894个发生点和9个气候变量.
- 使用80%-20%的培训和验证集验证模型准确性,实现AUC为0.943和TSS为0.741.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年代和2070年代,根据不同的共享社会经济路径 (SSP 2-4.5和SSP 5-8.5),区域的气候适应性将从"非常高"和"高"类别转变为"中等"或"非常低".
- 确定卡纳塔克邦是高度脆弱的,越来越多的地区转移到"非常低"和"低"的适合性类别.
- 观察到东北部高适宜性地区从西北向西南转移,表明潜在的新种植区.
结论:
- 迫切需要采取适应性战略,以减轻气候变化对果种植的负面影响,特别是在像卡纳塔克邦这样的脆弱地区.
- 该研究强调需要积极的规划和政策干预,以确保坚果生产的长期可持续性.
- 在印度某些东北部地区,未来的子种植可能是可行的,而西部和南部的内陆地区需要立即进行适应计划.
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