在澳大利亚规则足球中预测成功的选秀结果:与后勤回归相比,模型灵敏度在神经网络中优越
Jacob Jennings1,2, Jay C Perrett3, Daniel W Wundersitz1
1Holsworth Research Initiative, La Trobe Rural Health School, La Trobe University, Bendigo, VIC, Australia.
PloS one
|February 29, 2024
概括
神经网络在预测澳大利亚足球联盟选秀成功方面表现优于后勤回归. 这种人工智能方法增强了精英初级球员的才华识别,改善了草稿结果预测.
科学领域:
- 运动科学 运动科学 运动科学
- 运动分析中的机器学习
- 在精英体育运动中的预测建模.
背景情况:
- 预测精英青年运动员选秀成功对于团队招募至关重要.
- 传统的统计模型可能无法完全捕捉复杂的性能数据.
- 机器学习的进步为体育分析提供了新的途径.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较后勤回归和神经网络对澳大利亚足球联盟 (AFL) 选秀结果的预测性能.
- 用历史玩家数据评估模型的准确性,灵敏性和特异性.
- 确定最有效的建模方法来预测精英初级澳大利亚规则足球运动员的选秀潜力.
主要方法:
- 收集了来自708名精英初级澳大利亚规则足球运动员的身体,游戏运动和技术数据.
- 利用465名球员 (2017-2020年) 的数据开发了预测模型,并对2021年AFL国家选秀的243名球员进行了前性测试.
- 通过使用因子化和非因子化数据,在各种相对切断值 (5%-50%) 中比较了后勤回归和神经网络模型.
主要成果:
- 神经网络优于后勤回归,在88%的案例中表现更好,在15%的草稿率和35%的趋同门下.
- 与后勤回归相比,神经网络的整体准确性 (76%与66%),特异性 (79%与73%) 和灵敏性 (61%与29%) 较高.
- 神经网络占了不同位置组和数据配置中40个表现最好的模型中的73%.
结论:
- 神经网络提供了一种更敏感,更准确的方法来预测精英青年球员在澳大利亚规则足球中的选秀潜力.
- 这些发现表明,机器学习,特别是神经网络,可以显著增强职业体育领域的人才识别过程.
- 改进的模型灵敏度对于识别具有高征兵潜力的有才华的玩家至关重要,在这种情况下,神经网络优于传统的后勤回归.
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