评估和预测城市规模物流的碳排放,以制定低碳发展战略
Junyu Chen1,2, Yan Zhu1, Chuanming Yang1
1School of Business, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, China.
PloS one
|February 29, 2024
概括
中国的物流碳排放 (LCE) 从2013年至2020年增加. 低碳情景显著减少了LCE,突出了江苏省战略发展的需要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 物流和供应链管理的物流和供应链管理.
- 气候变化政策 气候变化政策
背景情况:
- 中国的碳峰值和碳中和国家战略需要低碳物流转型.
- 全球越来越关注物流运营对环境的影响.
- 物流碳排放 (LCE) 是实现可持续发展目标的重大挑战.
研究的目的:
- 为评估和预测物流碳排放 (LCE) 构建一个技术框架.
- 分析影响因素和江苏省LCE的效率.
- 在不同的场景下探索LCE的演变,并提出低碳战略.
主要方法:
- 制定一个技术框架,包括LCE评估,预测和低碳战略.
- 实证研究应用于中国江苏的13个县级城市 (2013-2020年).
- 面板托比特模型用于对LCE效率和基于场景的演变的影响分析.
主要成果:
- 江苏的LCE显示了整体上升趋势 (2013-2020年),徐州,苏州和南京的排放量最高.
- 江苏的静态LCE效率处于中等水平,波动受技术变化的影响.
- 经济因素,工业结构,资产利用率和环境与LCE效率有正相关;教育和能源强度显示出负相关性.
- 与基线相比,在低碳场景中观察到LCE的显著减少.
结论:
- 江苏的物流碳排放需要战略干预来减少.
- 经济和结构因素对LCE的效率起着至关重要的作用.
- 实施低碳战略可以大幅减少物流的碳足迹.
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