快速评估城市流域雨水洪水量的工具:一种机器学习方法
Bartosz Szeląg1, Dariusz Majerek2, Anna Laura Eusebi3
1Instituteof Environmental Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, 02-797, Warsaw, Poland.
Journal of environmental management
|February 29, 2024
概括
机器学习模型,特别是深度神经网络 (DNN),可以准确预测下水道网络的洪水量. 这为城市洪水管理的复杂机制模型提供了一个数据效率高的替代方案.
科学领域:
- 环境工程 环境工程
- 水文学的水文学
- 城市水资源管理
背景情况:
- 准确预测特定的洪水量对于评估下水道网络性能至关重要.
- 像SWMM这样的机械模型 (MCM) 是标准的,但需要广泛的数据和复杂的校准.
- 数据采集和模型校准在现实场景中对MCM构成重大挑战.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证机器学习 (ML) 模拟器,用于预测下水道网络中的特定洪水量.
- 提出一种方法来使用ML作为MCM的替代品,解决数据限制.
- 评估深度神经网络 (DNN) 和通用添加模型 (GAM) 对于洪水预测的性能.
主要方法:
- 利用机器学习方法,包括深度神经网络 (DNN) 和通用添加模型 (GAM).
- 使用全球灵敏度分析 (GSA) 与Sobol指数计算来选择最合适的ML模型.
- 索博尔指数与下水道网络特征之间的确定回归关系.
主要成果:
- DNN模型与GSA计算具有很高的一致性,验证了其用于洪水预测的使用.
- 在关键下水道网络参数和索博尔指数之间建立了回归关系 (R2 = 0.550.78).
- 与SWMM相比,展示了DNN模型的可行性,用于预测与SWMM相比,在有限的输入数据的情况下预测下水道网络洪水.
结论:
- 开发的DNN模型为预测下水道网络洪水提供了一种可行和数据效率高的方法.
- 这种基于ML的方法适用于有限的数据访问和城市规划阶段的城市水域管理.
- DNN 模型为传统的 MCM 提供了可行的替代方案,简化了预测过程.
相关概念视频
Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
46
Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
46
Conservation of Mass in Moving, Nondeforming Control Volume
1.1K
Stormwater detention basins are essential in managing runoff during heavy rainfall, particularly in urban areas where impervious surfaces increase the risk of flooding. Understanding the conservation of mass in these systems allows engineers to optimize basin performance, balancing inflow, outflow, and water storage.
In the context of a detention basin, the conservation of mass states that the total mass of water entering the basin must equal the mass leaving the basin plus any accumulation of...
In the context of a detention basin, the conservation of mass states that the total mass of water entering the basin must equal the mass leaving the basin plus any accumulation of...
1.1K
Rapidly Varying Flow
62
Rapidly varying flow (RVF) in open channels is characterized by abrupt changes in flow depth over a short distance, with the rate of depth change relative to distance often approaching unity. These flows are inherently complex due to their transient and multi-dimensional nature, making exact analysis difficult. However, approximate solutions using simplified models provide valuable insights into their behavior.Key Features of Rapidly Varying FlowRVF is commonly observed in scenarios involving...
62
Applications of GIS: Disaster Management and Emergency Response
78
Geographic Information System (GIS) technology is essential for risk identification, action prioritization, and resource optimization in critical situations like flooding and earthquakes. By integrating spatial and demographic data, GIS provides a comprehensive framework for emergency response.GIS integrates data layers, like rainfall intensity, topography, elevation profiles, and river levels, to model high-risk flood zones. These layers assess areas susceptible to flooding based on their...
78
Design Example: Creating a Hydraulic Model of a Dam Spillway
168
Scaled hydraulic models of dam spillways provide a practical way to replicate and study the intricate flow dynamics of these structures. Often built to a 1:15 ratio, these models allow for observing critical water behavior, such as velocity distribution, flow patterns, and energy dissipation.
168
Typical Model Studies
359
Fluid mechanics model studies often utilize scaled-down systems to predict fluid behavior in full-scale environments, such as river flows, dam spillways, and structures interacting with open surfaces. Maintaining Froude number similarity in river models is crucial, as it replicates surface flow features like wave patterns and velocities.
359


