在2023-24年厄尔尼诺现象期间,区域气温创纪录的风险增加
Ning Jiang1, Congwen Zhu2, Zeng-Zhen Hu3
1State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China.
Scientific reports
|February 29, 2024
概括
预计厄尔尼诺现象将在2023-2024年导致全球表面空气温度 (SAT) 创纪录. 由于这一重大气候事件,特定地区面临海洋热浪和野火的风险增加.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 厄尔尼诺现象显著影响全球气候模式.
- 年间气候变化影响区域地表空气温度 (SAT).
- 了解区域SAT异常对于预测极端天气事件至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估厄尔尼诺现象对2023-2024年全球和区域SAT的影响.
- 为了确定最容易受到创纪录的变暖的地区.
- 评估与预测的温度异常相关的风险.
主要方法:
- 分析气候信号和厄尔尼诺对SAT波动的影响.
- 统计建模以估计超越历史SAT记录的概率.
- 根据温度异常模式确定易受影响的地理区域.
主要成果:
- 全球平均SAT在2023年7月至2024年6月期间超过历史记录的概率为90%.
- 厄尔尼诺和气候信号持久性对SAT振幅和空间分布的显著影响.
- 确定脆弱地区,包括亚洲沿海,阿拉斯加,加勒比海和亚马逊.
结论:
- 厄尔尼诺现象的发展是预计全球气温激增的主要驱动因素.
- 创纪录的高SAT带来了海洋热浪,野火和其他不利影响的风险.
- 战略缓解措施对于应对脆弱地区潜在的最坏情况影响至关重要.
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