作为全球变暖的作用,碳预算的新兴限制是全球变暖的作用
Peter M Cox1,2, Mark S Williamson3,4, Pierre Friedlingstein3,4,5
1Faculty of Environment, Science, and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. p.m.cox@exeter.ac.uk.
Nature communications
|February 29, 2024
概括
地球系统模型 (ESM) 为全球变暖提供碳预算估计. 本研究通过使用新出现的约束来完善这些预算,为巴黎协定目标提供更大的范围.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 气候建模气候模型
背景情况:
- 地球系统模型 (ESM) 显示了全球变暖水平的碳预算预测的变化.
- 准确的碳预算对于实现"巴黎协定"中的气候目标至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 发展碳预算的新兴约束,作为全球变暖的作用.
- 为累积碳预算提供更可靠的估计,与"巴黎协定"的温度目标保持一致.
主要方法:
- 将历史和未来的ESM模拟与全球变暖和二氧化碳排放的观测数据相结合.
- 利用新出现的约束来改进碳预算估计.
主要成果:
- 预计1.5°C和2°C升温的累计碳预算分别为812 [691,933] PgC和1048 [881,1216] PgC.
- 这些预算比CMIP6整体平均值大10%以上.
- 累积排放和变暖之间的线性持续到4°C.
结论:
- 该研究为巴黎协定关键变暖水平提供了精细化,更大的碳预算.
- 结果支持有效的暂时气候应对排放 (eTCRE) 值为2.1 [1.8,2.6] °C/1000PgC.
相关概念视频
Global Climate Change
24.4K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.4K
The Carbon Cycle
37.4K
Carbon is the basis of all organic matter on Earth, and is recycled through the ecosystem in two primary processes: one in which carbon is exchanged among living organisms, and one in which carbon is cycled over long periods of time through fossilized organic remains, weathering of rocks, and volcanic activity. Human activities, including increased agricultural practices and the burning of fossil fuels, has greatly affected the balance of the natural carbon cycle.
37.4K
Threats to Biodiversity
22.3K
There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
22.3K
What is Climate?
18.5K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.5K
Energy Budgets
9.2K
Organisms must balance energy intake with the energy required for growth, maintenance and reproduction. These trade-offs result in a variety of survivorship and reproductive strategies, including semelparity and iteroparity. Semelparous species, like annual plants, have only one reproductive episode in their lifetimes and consequently have short lifespans. Iteroparous species, by contrast, have many reproductive events during their lifetimes but have relatively few offspring. These two...
9.2K
Phase Diagrams
40.7K
A phase diagram combines plots of pressure versus temperature for the liquid-gas, solid-liquid, and solid-gas phase-transition equilibria of a substance. These diagrams indicate the physical states that exist under specific conditions of pressure and temperature and also provide the pressure dependence of the phase-transition temperatures (melting points, sublimation points, boiling points). Regions or areas labeled solid, liquid, and gas represent single phases, while lines or curves represent...
40.7K


