在使用两个简单的密度依赖模型预测人口大小的能力时,对密度依赖人口调节的证据较弱
Demissew T Gebreyohannes1, Jeff E Houlahan2
1Department of Biological Sciences, University of New Brunswick, Saint John, E2L 4L5, Canada. dgebreyo@unb.ca.
Scientific reports
|February 29, 2024
概括
自然种群中的密度依赖调节在简单模型中显示了微弱的证据. 需要使用多种模型进行进一步的研究,以充分评估人口动态.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 人口动态 人口动态
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
背景情况:
- 密度依赖在调节自然人口波动中的作用是一个长期以来的生态辩论.
- 密度依赖表明,当前的人口规模受到过去的人口水平的影响.
研究的目的:
- 在自然种群中比较密度依赖型和密度独立型模型的预测性能.
- 用简单的模型评估人口调节中的密度依赖的证据.
主要方法:
- 开发了四种人口模型:两个密度依赖 (Logistic,Gompertz) 和两个密度独立.
- 评估了14个数据集中的16000多个人口的模型预测准确性.
主要成果:
- 密度依赖模型在14个数据集中的4个数据集中显示出更好的预测.
- 在所有数据集中都没有发现密度依赖模型比密度独立模型具有统计学意义的优势.
结论:
- 根据简单的物流和戈珀茨模型,对广泛的密度依赖人口调节的证据很弱.
- 综合性评估需要测试更广泛的密度依赖模型,包括那些影响人口特征的模型.
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