接种疫苗对即将发生的HIV-COVID-19双重流行病的影响与自身行为修饰:山型功能反应和有预谋的优化技术
Madhuri Majumder1, Samares Pal1, Pankaj Kumar Tiwari2
1Department of Mathematics, University of Kalyani, Kalyani 741235, India.
Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)
|March 1, 2024
概括
数学建模显示,增加的COVID-19流行率悖论地提高了疫苗接种率,降低了共感染负担. 积极的疫苗接种和宣传活动对于管理艾滋病毒和COVID-19等双重流行病至关重要.
科学领域:
- * 传染病动态的数学建模.
- * 公共卫生和流行病学.
- * 艾滋病毒和COVID-19的同时感染动态.
背景情况:
- *了解艾滋病毒和COVID-19联合感染之间的复杂相互作用至关重要.
- *现有的模型往往不能完全捕捉影响疫苗接种的行为变化.
- * 疫苗接种和治疗对同时感染负担的影响需要进一步研究.
研究的目的:
- * 用数学模型来模拟HIV-COVID-19联合感染的动态.
- * 纳入内源性行为变化和疫苗接种策略.
- *分析联合疫苗接种和治疗干预措施的有效性.
主要方法:
- * 开发一个数学共感染模型.
- *疫苗接种机制的同化受COVID-19流行影响.
- * 导出艾滋病毒疫苗接种影响的基本生殖数.
- *模拟方法来探索疫苗接种,行为改变和药物的影响.
主要成果:
- * 在单一感染系统中观察到前向分叉,表明疾病持久性.
- *一个悖论:COVID-19患病率的增加导致了更高的疫苗接种率,减少了共感染.
- *最佳策略包括结合基线疫苗接种,意识和药物治疗.
结论:
- *积极的疫苗接种和宣传活动对于管理共同流行病至关重要.
- * 仅仅依赖疫情期间的行为变化可能是有害的.
- * 结合疫苗接种,宣传和治疗的综合战略提供了最好的流行病和经济结果.
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